Why I am an optimist

My family likes to complain that I am a pessimist and tell me I would be happier if I were more optimistic. They don’t understand. Some of the unhappiest people I know are optimists, because they falsely assume that optimism produces good outcomes. Their optimism feels to them like a magical talisman that will protect them. When their positive thinking does not shield them from bad outcomes they feel betrayed by Fate, often taking it personally, and sometimes becoming bitter.

I am a confirmed optimist - but one who believes in being prepared. My default assumption, for better or worse, is that things are more likely to work out fine than end in disaster. However, because I don’t believe that life owes me good outcomes, I take seriously my responsibility to do my part in securing safety, success, and happiness. Optimism is one of the tools I find helpful. (More on that in a bit.)

In a recent conversation about the growing threat from The New Right to democracy in the United States, I said - after enumerating a long list of worrisome events and trends - that I remained quite optimistic for the future. My conversational partner expressed surprise and asked me “Given all the things you just described, why are you still optimistic?”  The question can be interpreted at two vastly different levels.

I believe I am optimistic about US democracy (and about countless other things) because that is how I am wired. I can’t really help it. It is part of who I am. I have thought about this a great deal and have decided that my default optimism is grounded in three things: genetic, early childhood experience, and the fact that it has worked well for me.

1. Cognitive psychology and neuroscience thinks that there is a genetic predisposition toward positivity or optimism in some individuals. It is polygenic, not the predominant factor, involves the prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortices, and is related to inherited serotonin, dopamine, and oxytocin pathways. Twin studies suggest that it accounts for perhaps 24-35% of optimism levels.. At a biologic level, variants in the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTPLTR) are associated with increased resilience and positive affect while dopamine gene variants (such as DRD4 and COMT) can predispose towards positive outlooks because of their effects on the reward processing and motivation systems. The oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) has variants that are linked to trust, empathy, and positive outlook. There is also research that suggests an epigenetic impact:  supportive characteristics of experience can activate or increase the activity of the genes or gene variants involved.
2. My family of origin stressed concepts like silver linings in clouds,  making lemonade out of lemons and (though were were definitely NOT a religious family) God helps those who help themselves. I grew up in a reassuring environment where, in fact, things usually DID work out well. And my parents insulated me from potential sources of pessimistic learning during the early and most formative years of my childhood. For example, we did not have a TV in our house until I was in 5^th grade, our family did not watch the evening news, and our family’s radio listening was mostly classical music.
3. It works for me. I find fear, doubt, pessimism and other negative emotions to be personally very enervating.  I find positivity, joy, hope, and optimism to be energizing, encouraging me to engage. on the other hand.  Neurocognitive research suggests I am not alone.

It quickly became clear when I tried to explain all this to my conversational partner that this was not an answer to the question she had in mind. She didn’t want to know why I am an optimist. She wanted me to justify my optimism in this particular setting.

(It is a good thing I didn’t get into the various schools of modern philosophical conceptions of optimism: theological/metaphysical (Leibniz), key to historical progress (Hegel and many Enlightenment philosophers), pragmatic (William James, John Dewey), ethical/political (Karl Popper). Or reach back to the ancient Greeks and Romans.)

I rephrased the question as: “Given all the bad things you describe, what is your rationalization for still thinking things will work out in the end?” In short, how can you rationalize feeling good about the future?  This question was harder to answer. I have thought often and hard about why I am an optimist. I had not thought much about out why I feel that a good outcome is not just possible but (at least somewhat) more likely than a bad outcome. Here is my rationalization:

1. The human brain is a machine that collects data, looks for (or invents) patterns and then uses models based on prior knowledge and experience to predict outcome implications or responses.
2. The brain is optimized for efficiency, short term success, and survival. It is not optimized for truth,  accuracy, or (sadly) long term success.
3. Both individual and societal evolutionary pressure tend over time to select for improved function and survivability. (Our cognitive functions and consciousness are examples of successful improvements.)
4. Bad data and bad models increase the likelihood and frequency of bad predictions and bad outcomes. 
5. Human individuals, societies,  and the species as a whole have tended over history to gravitate towards better data and better models.
6. Authoritarian systems by their nature are rigid, dogmatic, and tend to reject change and adaptations. This greatly reduces their (long term) chances of success.
7. The core principles of the Enlightenment were enormously successful, as evidenced by the staggering progress in quality of life over the last 300 years, unequalled during any other era since the origin of our species.
8. Over the long haul, I think it is more likely than not that authoritarian governance and culture will self-destruct and the core principles of the Liberal Tradition will prove their worth.

I grant that this rosy assessment is based on the assumption that the innate powers of human altruism and reason are strong enough to withstand the impact of fear and deception.  I can’t prove that. Or even offer Neurocognitive science in support. It just comes back to the fact that…

I. Am. An. Optimist.