For content related to evidence based (informed) medicine (EBM or EIM)

An updated Covid risk calculus

Covid is still very much with us, and will remain a significant public health problem for the foreseeable future. However, the Covid landscape has changed substantially over the nearly 4 years since it arrived. I recently spent some time reviewing and updating my assessment of my risk and my process for deciding what I am comfortable doing.  

I will start with my understanding of my personal risks, which I divide into three categories: acute or short-term risks, chronic risk related to long Covid (PASC), and long-term risks from Covid’s impact on other disease processes.

Using the CRAP test

I spend a great deal of time these days keeping up with the tsunami of information about SARS-CoV-2 (the virus) and COVID-19 (the illness), with a goal of sharing valid and useful information with others. I've taken to suggesting that people identify crap with the CRAP test:
Currency - the timeliness of the information:
● When was the information published or last updated?
● Have newer articles been published on your topic?


Before you decide about treatment, you should ask about NNT and NNH. These are numbers that can help you understand how likely the treatment is to help (or harm) you. They are easy to understand - though they can seem confusing to calculate.